African Update

Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) leader Morgan Tsvangirai announced today that he would not take part in Zimbabwe’s runoff election for president this Friday.  It turns out that trying to unseat Robert Mugabe, something that Tsvangirai had come very close to doing during the general election nearly three months ago, has simply become too dangerous.

“We can’t ask the people to cast their vote on June 27 when that vote will cost their lives.  We will no longer participate in this violent sham of an election,” Tsvangirai said.

The MDC and independent rights groups claim that as many as 85 MDC supporters have been killed in the weeks leading up to the scheduled runoff election.  Mugabe’s government was reluctantly forced to admit that Tsvangirai had gained more votes than Mugabe in the March election but it wasn’t enough for Tsvangirai to win outright, forcing a belatedly-scheduled runoff election between the two and an opportunity for Mugabe’s supporters to organize, threaten, intimidate, and murder those who supported the MDC.  A major MDC rally had been scheduled in Harare, Zimbabwe’s capital, today but Mugabe’s supporters blocked the assembly preventing it from happening.  Perhaps that was the last straw.

Tsvangirai and his supporters were defeated by a ruthless, heartless tyrant who doesn’t care for one moment about the people that he supposedly liberated nearly thirty years ago. Mugabe’s only concern today seems to be making certain that he dies in office and avoids any possibility of being prosecuted for his multitude of crimes.  He is a huge disgrace but, unlike in years past, other African leaders are starting to take notice. 

Tsvangirai has promised to work with the United Nations, European Union, and the southern African bloc of nations to sort out the mess in Zimbabwe so we should see plenty of interesting developments in the coming days and weeks.  Perhaps Mugabe will be forced out of power in favor of a unity government between the MDC and Mugabe’s ZANU-PF party.  It’s difficult to know at this moment what might happen but something’s got to give.  The tipping point in Zimbabwe has long since passed.

On Saturday South African president Thabo Mbeki claimed that there was “no crisis” in Zimbabwe despite the fact that the official results of the country’s presidential election, which took place a full two weeks ago, have not yet been announced.  Mbeki is a lame duck president who has already lost his seat at the head of his party and will lose his job as South Africa’s president next year.  His legacy of “quiet diplomacy” in dealing with Zimbabwe’s president Robert Mugabe over the past several years has been a failure.  One would think that, if for no other reason than his own legacy, Mbeki would take this obvious opportunity that’s been handed to him to finally take a stand as the leader of the region’s superpower and try to help sort out the ridiculous mess in Zimbabwe.

Some estimates suggest that as many as three million Zimbabweans have streamed, mostly illegally, across the border into South Africa in recent years to escape the eighty percent unemployment and six-figure inflation rate that is Robert Mugabe’s legacy in Zimbabwe.  If that number is even partially correct it would be clear that Zimbabwe’s plight is also having an enormous repercussion on South Africa’s own well-being.  So why on earth wouldn’t Thabo Mbeki want to do everything in his power to solve this massive problem?

The fact that Robert Mugabe is a hero of Africa’s liberation struggle, and that struggle shaped Thabo Mbeki’s worldview, certainly might have a lot to do with Mbeki’s refusal to treat Mugabe with anything but kid gloves.  But that could hardly be the whole story.  Mbeki’s likely successor, Jacob Zuma, has come out strongly against Mugabe and his chicanery in Zimbabwe.  Is Zuma any less enamored by Africa’s liberation heroes of the past than Mbeki is?  Probably not.

Of course Zuma’s harshness against Mugabe might just be because Mbeki, his bitter rival, is not harsh enough.  And Mbeki’s “quiet diplomacy” did help to produce changes in the electoral system in Zimbabwe prior to this recent election that Mbeki might still hope will ultimately play out in a positive way.  But it is difficult to understand why, particularly at this very critical point, Mbeki doesn’t take the bull by the horns and wrestle it to the ground while he has the opportunity.

It is another prime example of an African leader failing the African people yet again.

 

Check out our new review of Heidi Holland’s new book Dinner with Mugabe.

Not all politicians in Africa are bad.  This is a fact that—particularly while Zimbabwe’s President Robert Mugabe is in the process of stealing yet another African election—we sometimes must remind ourselves of.

Botswana’s Festus Mogae was elected as Botswana’s president in 1998, after serving as the country’s Vice President since 1992.  He was re-elected to a five-year term in 2004.  Last summer Mogae announced that he would retire the following spring before the expiration of his term and, nine months later, he is stepping down.

On Tuesday Mogae will hand the presidency over to his vice president in yet another smooth transition for a nation that has never known anything else.  Mogae is leaving office early partly because he wants to retire and party because he wants to allow his vice president the opportunity to run as an incumbent in next year’s election.

If every African politician followed Festus Mogae’s example the continent would be a much better place.  While Botswana is hardly as well off as the richest nations of the world, it is one of Africa’s true, long-term success stories.  It has one of the most robust economies on the continent and one of its most progressive social systems.  While HIV/AIDS has been a major problem for Botswana, the government has taken aggressive measures to turn the tide against the disease.

Perhaps Botswana’s unique colonial history has helped to make the difference.  The British instituted a mostly self-governing system that transitioned nicely into the post-colonial, independent government.  Whatever it was, Botswana’s political history consists of a series of boring transitions of power that have helped give the country its noted stability and high credit rating.

Perhaps after he leaves office Festus Mogae can head to Zimbabwe to give a lesson on the finer points of real leadership to Robert Mugabe. 

One can only hope.