African Update

Robert Mugabe was photographed on Monday at a press conference announcing the start of conciliatory negotiations—which were apparently brokered by South African president Thabo Mbeki—holding the hand of his archrival and political opponent Morgan Tsvangirai and speaking about seeking a “new way of political interaction” for Zimbabwe.

 

Perhaps Mugabe was just posing for the camera in the hopes that the glaring international spotlight would soon subside and he could go then get back to being a ruthless dictator.  Perhaps he was throwing his friend Mbeki a bone for helping to block UN sanctions against him.  Perhaps he sees an opportunity to emasculate Morgan Tsvangirai by drawing him in to his circle and, by consequence, reducing Tsvangirai’s appeal to those many Zimbabweans who so vigorously oppose Mugabe and all of the ill that he has done for their nation.  Perhaps Mugabe is just looking for any way possible to cling to power (taking a lesson from Kenya’s president Mwai Kibaki) and he sees a power-sharing deal as his surest way forward. 

 

Or perhaps Mugabe truly does care about the fact that Zimbabwe has become the purest definition of a failed state; that his citizen’s money no longer buys them anything; that many of his citizens don’t have enough food to eat; that over eighty percent of his citizens are unemployed; that democracy and rule of law have dried up in Zimbabwe.  Maybe Mugabe knows that he has failed his country and truly needs the help.

 

Of course those sorts of rational notions are laughable when it comes to Robert Mugabe and that’s what makes the situation in Zimbabwe just so tragic.  Still, talking is talking and maybe it will lead to some sort of solution that eases Zimbabwe forward in a positive way.  But it’s difficult not to be cynical when Robert Mugabe is part of the equation.

Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) leader Morgan Tsvangirai announced today that he would not take part in Zimbabwe’s runoff election for president this Friday.  It turns out that trying to unseat Robert Mugabe, something that Tsvangirai had come very close to doing during the general election nearly three months ago, has simply become too dangerous.

“We can’t ask the people to cast their vote on June 27 when that vote will cost their lives.  We will no longer participate in this violent sham of an election,” Tsvangirai said.

The MDC and independent rights groups claim that as many as 85 MDC supporters have been killed in the weeks leading up to the scheduled runoff election.  Mugabe’s government was reluctantly forced to admit that Tsvangirai had gained more votes than Mugabe in the March election but it wasn’t enough for Tsvangirai to win outright, forcing a belatedly-scheduled runoff election between the two and an opportunity for Mugabe’s supporters to organize, threaten, intimidate, and murder those who supported the MDC.  A major MDC rally had been scheduled in Harare, Zimbabwe’s capital, today but Mugabe’s supporters blocked the assembly preventing it from happening.  Perhaps that was the last straw.

Tsvangirai and his supporters were defeated by a ruthless, heartless tyrant who doesn’t care for one moment about the people that he supposedly liberated nearly thirty years ago. Mugabe’s only concern today seems to be making certain that he dies in office and avoids any possibility of being prosecuted for his multitude of crimes.  He is a huge disgrace but, unlike in years past, other African leaders are starting to take notice. 

Tsvangirai has promised to work with the United Nations, European Union, and the southern African bloc of nations to sort out the mess in Zimbabwe so we should see plenty of interesting developments in the coming days and weeks.  Perhaps Mugabe will be forced out of power in favor of a unity government between the MDC and Mugabe’s ZANU-PF party.  It’s difficult to know at this moment what might happen but something’s got to give.  The tipping point in Zimbabwe has long since passed.

I was a bit surprised by this article in the latest issue of the Economist, a publication that is, more often than not, laser sharp about such things.  The notion that Robert Mugabe might actually lose Zimbabwe’s election next week or might decide to step aside seems completely ludicrous.  And Mugabe’s recent changes to the electoral process—allowing police officers into polling stations and requiring a centralized vote-counting system—are the hallmarks of a vote that is about to be stolen.

Maybe it’s the fact that the old man is finally facing some real competition from two relatively viable competitors, including one formerly from his own party, Simba Makoni, and long-time nemesis Morgan Tsvangirai.  But, even if the vote is relatively free and fair, no single candidate will likely receive the necessary majority to win the election without a run-off.  And if and when a run-off election does happen, it would seem highly unlikely that Mugabe wouldn’t use every trick in his devious arsenal to assure that he remains Zimbabwe’s president for life.

Given the dirty tricks that he’s already employing—denying food to his political enemies, using the police to intimidate voters, and rigging the system to set up outright vote tampering, among other things—it seems as if Mugabe might be trying to “win” this election even without a run-off.

One of the saddest chapters in recent African history is that of Zimbabwe. Thanks to the work of one man, Robert Mugabe, that once-prosperous and hopeful nation is suffering from 100,000% inflation, 80% unemployment, food-shortages and utter desperation.  With the possible exception of North Korea, no other place on earth owes such a debt of ingratitude to one person.  He has single-handedly ruined his country and paralyzed Zimbabweans, the very people who he claims to have liberated twenty-eight years ago.  The irony of that, of course, is lost on the old man.

There is certainly hope for Zimbabwe one day soon—Mugabe can’t last forever—but it doesn’t seem likely at all that the tyrant will go down quietly.