African Update

Robert Mugabe was photographed on Monday at a press conference announcing the start of conciliatory negotiations—which were apparently brokered by South African president Thabo Mbeki—holding the hand of his archrival and political opponent Morgan Tsvangirai and speaking about seeking a “new way of political interaction” for Zimbabwe.

 

Perhaps Mugabe was just posing for the camera in the hopes that the glaring international spotlight would soon subside and he could go then get back to being a ruthless dictator.  Perhaps he was throwing his friend Mbeki a bone for helping to block UN sanctions against him.  Perhaps he sees an opportunity to emasculate Morgan Tsvangirai by drawing him in to his circle and, by consequence, reducing Tsvangirai’s appeal to those many Zimbabweans who so vigorously oppose Mugabe and all of the ill that he has done for their nation.  Perhaps Mugabe is just looking for any way possible to cling to power (taking a lesson from Kenya’s president Mwai Kibaki) and he sees a power-sharing deal as his surest way forward. 

 

Or perhaps Mugabe truly does care about the fact that Zimbabwe has become the purest definition of a failed state; that his citizen’s money no longer buys them anything; that many of his citizens don’t have enough food to eat; that over eighty percent of his citizens are unemployed; that democracy and rule of law have dried up in Zimbabwe.  Maybe Mugabe knows that he has failed his country and truly needs the help.

 

Of course those sorts of rational notions are laughable when it comes to Robert Mugabe and that’s what makes the situation in Zimbabwe just so tragic.  Still, talking is talking and maybe it will lead to some sort of solution that eases Zimbabwe forward in a positive way.  But it’s difficult not to be cynical when Robert Mugabe is part of the equation.

Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) leader Morgan Tsvangirai announced today that he would not take part in Zimbabwe’s runoff election for president this Friday.  It turns out that trying to unseat Robert Mugabe, something that Tsvangirai had come very close to doing during the general election nearly three months ago, has simply become too dangerous.

“We can’t ask the people to cast their vote on June 27 when that vote will cost their lives.  We will no longer participate in this violent sham of an election,” Tsvangirai said.

The MDC and independent rights groups claim that as many as 85 MDC supporters have been killed in the weeks leading up to the scheduled runoff election.  Mugabe’s government was reluctantly forced to admit that Tsvangirai had gained more votes than Mugabe in the March election but it wasn’t enough for Tsvangirai to win outright, forcing a belatedly-scheduled runoff election between the two and an opportunity for Mugabe’s supporters to organize, threaten, intimidate, and murder those who supported the MDC.  A major MDC rally had been scheduled in Harare, Zimbabwe’s capital, today but Mugabe’s supporters blocked the assembly preventing it from happening.  Perhaps that was the last straw.

Tsvangirai and his supporters were defeated by a ruthless, heartless tyrant who doesn’t care for one moment about the people that he supposedly liberated nearly thirty years ago. Mugabe’s only concern today seems to be making certain that he dies in office and avoids any possibility of being prosecuted for his multitude of crimes.  He is a huge disgrace but, unlike in years past, other African leaders are starting to take notice. 

Tsvangirai has promised to work with the United Nations, European Union, and the southern African bloc of nations to sort out the mess in Zimbabwe so we should see plenty of interesting developments in the coming days and weeks.  Perhaps Mugabe will be forced out of power in favor of a unity government between the MDC and Mugabe’s ZANU-PF party.  It’s difficult to know at this moment what might happen but something’s got to give.  The tipping point in Zimbabwe has long since passed.

There is a remarkably insightful piece by Joshua Hammer in the June 26th issue of the New York Review of Books about the events before and after last March’s election in Zimbabwe.  It’s a great primer for understanding the situation prior to the critical June 27th runoff election.  I highly recommend taking a look.

On Saturday South African president Thabo Mbeki claimed that there was “no crisis” in Zimbabwe despite the fact that the official results of the country’s presidential election, which took place a full two weeks ago, have not yet been announced.  Mbeki is a lame duck president who has already lost his seat at the head of his party and will lose his job as South Africa’s president next year.  His legacy of “quiet diplomacy” in dealing with Zimbabwe’s president Robert Mugabe over the past several years has been a failure.  One would think that, if for no other reason than his own legacy, Mbeki would take this obvious opportunity that’s been handed to him to finally take a stand as the leader of the region’s superpower and try to help sort out the ridiculous mess in Zimbabwe.

Some estimates suggest that as many as three million Zimbabweans have streamed, mostly illegally, across the border into South Africa in recent years to escape the eighty percent unemployment and six-figure inflation rate that is Robert Mugabe’s legacy in Zimbabwe.  If that number is even partially correct it would be clear that Zimbabwe’s plight is also having an enormous repercussion on South Africa’s own well-being.  So why on earth wouldn’t Thabo Mbeki want to do everything in his power to solve this massive problem?

The fact that Robert Mugabe is a hero of Africa’s liberation struggle, and that struggle shaped Thabo Mbeki’s worldview, certainly might have a lot to do with Mbeki’s refusal to treat Mugabe with anything but kid gloves.  But that could hardly be the whole story.  Mbeki’s likely successor, Jacob Zuma, has come out strongly against Mugabe and his chicanery in Zimbabwe.  Is Zuma any less enamored by Africa’s liberation heroes of the past than Mbeki is?  Probably not.

Of course Zuma’s harshness against Mugabe might just be because Mbeki, his bitter rival, is not harsh enough.  And Mbeki’s “quiet diplomacy” did help to produce changes in the electoral system in Zimbabwe prior to this recent election that Mbeki might still hope will ultimately play out in a positive way.  But it is difficult to understand why, particularly at this very critical point, Mbeki doesn’t take the bull by the horns and wrestle it to the ground while he has the opportunity.

It is another prime example of an African leader failing the African people yet again.